The National-Green Coalition Fantasy



I understand why some people want a National-Green coalition government.  But it's pure fantasy.

Various commentators and pundits want the National Party to govern - but without Winston Peters and New Zealand First.  The most recent example, as I write this, is an editorial for Stuff.co.nz  echoing Rachel Smalley in the New Zealand Herald.

They look at the Greens as National's only other possible coalition partner, and put forward reasons why the Greens would benefit from such an arrangement.

But these reasons are unrealistic at the most profound and basic level. For the benefit of pundits and commentators who don't understand this, here's a Politics 101 lecture on the differences between the Greens and National.

First, the Greens:

The Greens' political beliefs are expressed in their charter, which recognises that their are Limits to Growth and that a fair and safe future for humanity will rely on social justice, democratic decision-making and non-violence.

The Limits to Growth thesis is well-known amongst those who pay attention to what's going on in the world.  It predicts that industrial civilisation as we know it will collapse during the course of the 21st century if we don't make some dramatic changes. Soon.

That thesis is based on a systems dynamics model, developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the mid-1970's, which explains how the human species has overshot the ability of Earth's ecosystem to support our population size and our level of economic development, and what the consequences could be.  Unfortunately, the model is proving accurate so far.

At their very core, the Greens understand the self-destructive trajectory of modern industrial civilisation. They are fearful that human beings, under pressure, are likely to resort to totalitarian government, warfare and/or civil war, and even genocide, in pursuit of survival and self-interest.  And history has too often proven them right.

The Greens want to avoid the worst possible outcomes predicted by the Limits to Growth model, and create a sustainable, democratic and peaceful future. Not just for New Zealand, but for humanity as a whole.

The parts of the Green Party charter that refer to social justice, appropriate decision-making and non-violence are all about avoiding a dystopian future, as people all over the world inevitably struggle to adapt to resource shortages, climate change, and shrinking economic output.

But not everybody gets this, including many members of the Green party itself.  There is a solid faction within the Greens of people who see Social Justice in the Greens charter and think "Socialism!" and support the party to advance the cause of 20th century left-wing politics.

Some of these left the Labour Party to join New Labour in the late 1980's, which then morphed into the Alliance Party. Then, when the Alliance collapsed, they joined the Greens. Some are more recent arrivals.

The take-home lesson here is that the Greens are not merely tree-hugging environmentalists, concerned with saving a few dolphins, who want to enjoy swimming in unpolluted rivers.  They are revolutionaries who see economic system as dangerously dysfunctional and in need of urgent and profound transformation.

Then, National:

The National Party and its members either don't understand the Limits to Growth model, or don't want to.

That's not because they are stupid. Far from it - the National Party membership tends to be well-educated and capable - but they are instinctively cornucopian, and motivated by self-interest.

Some National Party members are environmentalists because they are conservative, or astute business managers: the environment is a treasured heirloom that should be kept in the family, or an asset that needs to be maintained and developed to ensure its future productive capacity.

But others believe fundamentally in their right to freely use the earth's resources - as much as possible and as quickly as possible - to enrich themselves (or all of "us" as New Zealanders).

They are all conservatives, in the sense that the world they inhabit is the world as they have known it, and as they want it to continue in the future.  They support the status quo because the current state of affairs has served them well and they are, or want to be, life's "winners".

For National Party people, politics is about looking after yourselves, your friends, and people of your own kind.  They favour nationalism and the interests of their "tribe".  If people struggle in life, it is most likely because of their own flaws and shortcomings.

Other peoples' problems are their responsibility, not ours - so if New Zealand's contribution to global warming is insignificant compared to the contributions of other nations, we have little or no obligation to support international efforts to reduce it.

A Coalition. Really?

So here's the problem: these two parties are profoundly divided by values, world view and ideology.  

There is only one pathway by which the National Party could entice the Greens into coalition. It would have to be so grimly determined to hang on to power that it would sell its very soul to the Greens: putting the interests of the world and future generations before the interests of themselves, their supporters, their members and the current crop of MPs.

They would have to offer the Greens a bulletproof coalition agreement which delivered some of the transformational social, economic and environmental changes sought by the Greens - along with seats at the Cabinet table for Green party ministers to drive those changes through.

And that is unthinkable. Pure fantasy.  It will never happen.

But if it did happen, it wouldn't look like the picture at the top of this post. It would look like this:



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